Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
